Sunday September 13, 2026
108 legs graded across 22 MLB and NFL games. Recommended legs went 14–19–1.
The day, in full
Closing-line value is the no-vig probability of the side we took at the close minus the same probability when the drop was built. Positive means the market moved onto our side. Two things keep it honest here. A leg whose drop was built after the game started has no closing line to beat, so its CLV is a dash rather than a zero. And the average is taken over recommended legs only: both sides of every market are priced and graded, and averaging a side against its own mirror image cancels to zero whatever the model did.
Recommended legs
Tier A and tier B only — the legs the model actually stood behind that day.
| Pick | Market | Ours | Edge | Tier | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7Pirates at Cubs | Total | 79.3% | +27.8 | A | Push | — |
| WSH to winAngels at Nationals | Moneyline | 73.0% | +17.6 | A | Win | — |
| MIN to winGuardians at Twins | Moneyline | 70.5% | +17.3 | A | Loss | — |
| COL to winRockies at Tigers | Moneyline | 54.6% | +17.0 | A | Loss | — |
| SF +1.5Padres at Giants | Spread | 71.3% | +14.2 | A | Loss | — |
| MIA to winDolphins at Raiders | Moneyline | 53.5% | +13.9 | A | Loss | — |
| Over 8.5White Sox at Cardinals | Total | 65.6% | +13.2 | A | Loss | — |
| NYG to winCowboys at Giants | Moneyline | 53.1% | +13.1 | A | Win | — |
| STL to winWhite Sox at Cardinals | Moneyline | 60.8% | +12.9 | A | Win | — |
| NYG +3Cowboys at Giants | Spread | 61.3% | +11.7 | A | Win | — |
| MIA +3Dolphins at Raiders | Spread | 61.6% | +11.6 | A | Loss | — |
| ARI +8.5Cardinals at Chargers | Spread | 59.1% | +10.8 | A | Win | — |
| ARI to winCardinals at Chargers | Moneyline | 31.5% | +10.2 | A | Win | — |
| Over 8.5Dodgers at Marlins | Total | 58.5% | +10.0 | A | Win | — |
| Over 40.5Browns at Jaguars | Total | 56.4% | +8.2 | A | Win | — |
| CAR to winBears at Panthers | Moneyline | 47.7% | +7.6 | A | Loss | — |
| Under 49.5Saints at Lions | Total | 56.4% | +7.5 | A | Loss | — |
| ATH to winMariners at Athletics | Moneyline | 53.2% | +7.4 | A | Win | — |
| HOU +1.5Bills at Texans | Spread | 58.5% | +7.4 | A | Loss | — |
| CAR +3Bears at Panthers | Spread | 56.9% | +7.4 | A | Loss | — |
| Over 40.5Dolphins at Raiders | Total | 56.4% | +6.4 | A | Loss | — |
| CLE to winBrowns at Jaguars | Moneyline | 26.8% | +5.9 | B | Loss | — |
| Under 7.5Padres at Giants | Total | 58.4% | +5.8 | B | Loss | — |
| SF to winPadres at Giants | Moneyline | 49.3% | +5.6 | B | Loss | — |
| CIN to winReds at Brewers | Moneyline | 41.2% | +5.5 | B | Win | — |
| CLE +8.5Browns at Jaguars | Spread | 54.4% | +5.5 | B | Loss | — |
| Under 47.5Cowboys at Giants | Total | 53.6% | +5.3 | B | Loss | — |
| HOU to winAstros at Rays | Moneyline | 50.8% | +5.3 | B | Loss | — |
| HOU to winBills at Texans | Moneyline | 55.0% | +5.0 | B | Loss | — |
| MIA to winDodgers at Marlins | Moneyline | 49.3% | +4.6 | B | Win | — |
| MIN to winPackers at Vikings | Moneyline | 57.3% | +4.1 | B | Win | — |
| Over 9.5Phillies at Braves | Total | 51.7% | +3.8 | B | Win | — |
| NO to winSaints at Lions | Moneyline | 29.1% | +3.2 | B | Loss | — |
| TOR to winOrioles at Blue Jays | Moneyline | 61.1% | +3.1 | B | Win | — |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
Games
Each game’s recommended (tier A/B) record that day.
How to read this page
Tier A is an edge of six points or more and tier B three to six; both are recommended. Tier C is below three points — it is shown for completeness and is never recommended. A prop market whose calibration gate is failing is marked watch: the model prices it, the record grades it, and nothing here recommends it.