HourDrop

One analytical drop per NFL and MLB game, published exactly sixty minutes before it starts. A dollar a game.

Today. Loading the board, counting drops.

Reading today's slate --:--:--

Today's board

A drop opens an hour before its game and closes at first pitch or kickoff. All times Eastern.

Loading today's games.

How a drop works

  1. The model runs on public data

    Team form, starting pitchers, pace, rest and the injury report go into a Python model that returns one probability per market. Nothing is hand-picked and no language model touches a number.

  2. Those probabilities meet the posted line

    Each one is set against the published DraftKings price. The gap is the edge, and legs are tiered by it: A at six points or more, B from three to six, C below three — shown, but not recommended.

  3. The drop opens for sixty minutes

    One dollar unlocks that game's note: the tiered legs, correlated two-leg combos, the fade list and the reasoning behind each one. One hundred seats. It closes when the game starts.

  4. Every leg is graded in public

    When the game ends the legs are scored automatically and posted to the record, misses included. Nothing is edited by hand and nothing is quietly removed.

The record, without the spin

This is a young model on a small sample. Read it that way, and read the model-status note before you spend anything.

recommended legs, wins–losses
hit rate on recommended legs
NFL backtest against the spread, below the 52.4% break-even

Recommended means tier A and tier B, the legs a drop actually puts forward. Every leg of every market is graded, so an all-legs number sits near 50% by construction and tells you nothing.

Open the full record

One leg a day, free

The best tier B or C leg from the day's first validated drop, with the same reasoning paid readers get. Tier A stays inside the drop. The free leg is graded alongside everything else.

See today's free leg

What HourDrop is not

It is not a sportsbook and not affiliated with one. No wager is accepted, routed or settled here, and there are no affiliate links anywhere on this site. What a dollar buys is one game's analysis.