One analytical drop per NFL and MLB game, published exactly sixty minutes before it starts. A dollar a game.
Today's board
A drop opens an hour before its game and closes at first pitch or kickoff. All times Eastern.
Loading today's games.
How a drop works
-
The model runs on public data
Team form, starting pitchers, pace, rest and the injury report go into a Python model that returns one probability per market. Nothing is hand-picked and no language model touches a number.
-
Those probabilities meet the posted line
Each one is set against the published DraftKings price. The gap is the edge, and legs are tiered by it: A at six points or more, B from three to six, C below three — shown, but not recommended.
-
The drop opens for sixty minutes
One dollar unlocks that game's note: the tiered legs, correlated two-leg combos, the fade list and the reasoning behind each one. One hundred seats. It closes when the game starts.
-
Every leg is graded in public
When the game ends the legs are scored automatically and posted to the record, misses included. Nothing is edited by hand and nothing is quietly removed.
The record, without the spin
This is a young model on a small sample. Read it that way, and read the model-status note before you spend anything.
Recommended means tier A and tier B, the legs a drop actually puts forward. Every leg of every market is graded, so an all-legs number sits near 50% by construction and tells you nothing.
One leg a day, free
The best tier B or C leg from the day's first validated drop, with the same reasoning paid readers get. Tier A stays inside the drop. The free leg is graded alongside everything else.
What HourDrop is not
It is not a sportsbook and not affiliated with one. No wager is accepted, routed or settled here, and there are no affiliate links anywhere on this site. What a dollar buys is one game's analysis.