Record
Every leg a drop published, graded automatically once the game ended. Nothing is edited by hand, and every rate carries the sample it came from.
What the backtest says
The NFL model was backtested on —, — games. It called the moneyline right — of the time, which is roughly what picking the home favourite every week would give you, and it went — against the spread over — picks. That is below the 52.4% a −110 price needs to break even.
The live sample below is a handful of legs from a shadow run. It is far too small to mean anything yet. HourDrop is sold as analysis, not as a winning system, and no drop claims otherwise.
Recommended legs, by bucket
Recommended by sport
Recommended by market
Every graded leg
Every leg
Both sides of every market are graded, so the all-legs number sits near 50% by construction — it’s a diagnostic, not a result. The list above shows our recommended (tier A/B) legs by default.
Browse every game
Edge is our probability minus the book’s implied probability, in percentage points. A leg is a win, a loss or a push — there is no third category, and none of these rows can be deleted after the fact.