Friday September 25, 2026
138 legs graded across 15 MLB games. Recommended legs went 11–4.
The day, in full
Closing-line value is the no-vig probability of the side we took at the close minus the same probability when the drop was built. Positive means the market moved onto our side. Two things keep it honest here. A leg whose drop was built after the game started has no closing line to beat, so its CLV is a dash rather than a zero. And the average is taken over recommended legs only: both sides of every market are priced and graded, and averaging a side against its own mirror image cancels to zero whatever the model did.
Recommended legs
Tier A and tier B only — the legs the model actually stood behind that day.
| Pick | Market | Ours | Edge | Tier | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH +1.5Mets at Nationals | Spread | 74.4% | +17.2 | A | Win | +4.90 |
| Over 6.5Cubs at Red Sox | Total | 61.4% | +12.5 | A | Loss | +2.16 |
| KC +1.5Guardians at Royals | Spread | 68.6% | +11.4 | A | Loss | +2.03 |
| WSH to winMets at Nationals | Moneyline | 55.6% | +10.7 | A | Win | +5.54 |
| Over 6.5Orioles at Yankees | Total | 61.7% | +10.6 | A | Win | -2.06 |
| MIA +1.5Braves at Marlins | Spread | 69.3% | +10.0 | A | Win | +1.54 |
| MIN +1.5Rangers at Twins | Spread | 72.1% | +9.9 | A | Win | -1.96 |
| ATH +1.5Astros at Athletics | Spread | 59.1% | +9.7 | A | Win | -1.30 |
| Over 6.5Cubs at Red Sox | Total | 57.0% | +8.1 | A | Win | +1.08 |
| BOS +1.5Cubs at Red Sox | Spread | 69.8% | +8.1 | A | Win | -1.41 |
| SF +1.5Dodgers at Giants | Spread | 45.5% | +7.0 | A | Loss | +0.48 |
| DET +1.5Pirates at Tigers | Spread | 69.7% | +6.7 | A | Win | +0.93 |
| BOS +1.5Cubs at Red Sox | Spread | 68.1% | +6.6 | A | Win | +0.04 |
| LAA to winAngels at Mariners | Moneyline | 52.9% | +4.2 | B | Win | +0.22 |
| SEA +1.5Angels at Mariners | Spread | 70.0% | +4.2 | B | Loss | -0.37 |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
Games
Each game’s recommended (tier A/B) record that day.
How to read this page
Tier A is an edge of six points or more and tier B three to six; both are recommended. Tier C is below three points — it is shown for completeness and is never recommended. A prop market whose calibration gate is failing is marked watch: the model prices it, the record grades it, and nothing here recommends it.