Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
MLB · Tue Sep 15, 6:45 pm ET · 12 legs priced, 1 recommended.
Kickoff was Tue Sep 15, 6:45 pm ET. Results post once the game is graded.
Our model against the market
Ours is the model’s probability. Implied is the probability the posted price carries. Edge is the gap between them, in points.
| Market | Pick | Ours | Implied | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | WSH +1.5 | 60.6% | 46.8% | +13.9 | A |
| Moneyline | WSH to win | 38.0% | 34.4% | +3.6 | C |
| Moneyline | PHI to win | 62.0% | 65.6% | -3.6 | C |
| Total | Under 8 | 43.5% | 49.1% | -5.7 | C |
| Total | Over 8 | 42.6% | 50.9% | -8.3 | C |
| Spread | PHI -1.5 | 39.4% | 53.2% | -13.9 | C |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
First 5 innings
The First 5 model has not cleared its own calibration gate, so every leg here is shown and none is recommended.
| Market | Pick | Ours | Implied | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 5 run line | WSH +1 | 60.0% | 53.1% | +6.9 | C |
| First 5 total | Under 4.5 | 55.8% | 53.1% | +2.7 | C |
| First 5 moneyline | WSH to win | 36.4% | 36.0% | +0.3 | C |
| First 5 moneyline | PHI to win | 63.6% | 64.0% | -0.3 | C |
| First 5 total | Over 4.5 | 44.2% | 46.9% | -2.7 | C |
| First 5 run line | PHI -1 | 40.0% | 46.9% | -6.9 | C |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
Injury report the model saw
PHI
- Caleb Kilian — 15-Day-IL
- Jesus Luzardo — 15-Day-IL
- Felix Reyes — 60-Day-IL
- Johan Rojas — 60-Day-IL
- Adolis Garcia — 60-Day-IL
WSH
- DJ Herz — 60-Day-IL
- PJ Poulin — 60-Day-IL
- Orlando Ribalta — 15-Day-IL
- Connelly Early — 60-Day-IL
- Josiah Gray — 60-Day-IL
Copied from the drop file as it stood when the drop was built. It is not updated afterwards.
How to read this page
Tier A is an edge of six points or more and tier B three to six; both are recommended. Tier C is below three points — it is shown for completeness and is never recommended. A prop market whose calibration gate is failing is marked watch: the model prices it, the record grades it, and nothing here recommends it.
Other MLB games that day
Every leg on this page is graded in public on the record and on the Sep 15, 2026 results page. One leg a day is posted in full, free, on today’s free leg.