Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants
MLB · Mon Sep 21, 9:45 pm ET · 6 legs priced, 1 recommended.
Kickoff was Mon Sep 21, 9:45 pm ET. Results post once the game is graded.
Our model against the market
Ours is the model’s probability. Implied is the probability the posted price carries. Edge is the gap between them, in points.
| Market | Pick | Ours | Implied | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | SF +1.5 | 68.8% | 59.3% | +9.5 | A |
| Moneyline | SF to win | 48.4% | 46.9% | +1.6 | C |
| Moneyline | MIN to win | 51.6% | 53.1% | -1.6 | C |
| Total | Over 8 | 47.5% | 50.8% | -3.2 | C |
| Spread | MIN -1.5 | 31.2% | 40.7% | -9.5 | C |
| Total | Under 8 | 38.7% | 49.2% | -10.5 | C |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
Injury report the model saw
MIN
- Mike Paredes — 60-Day-IL
- Mick Abel — 60-Day-IL
- Kaelen Culpepper — 10-Day-IL
- Trevor Larnach — 10-Day-IL
- Byron Buxton — 10-Day-IL
SF
- JT Brubaker — 15-Day-IL
- Matt Gage — 60-Day-IL
- Willy Adames — 10-Day-IL
- Nate Furman — 10-Day-IL
- Bryce Eldridge — 7-Day IL
Copied from the drop file as it stood when the drop was built. It is not updated afterwards.
How to read this page
Tier A is an edge of six points or more and tier B three to six; both are recommended. Tier C is below three points — it is shown for completeness and is never recommended. A prop market whose calibration gate is failing is marked watch: the model prices it, the record grades it, and nothing here recommends it.
Every leg on this page is graded in public on the record and on the Sep 21, 2026 results page. One leg a day is posted in full, free, on today’s free leg.