Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
NFL · Thu Sep 24, 8:15 pm ET · 6 legs priced, 1 recommended.
Kickoff was Thu Sep 24, 8:15 pm ET. Results post once the game is graded.
Our model against the market
Ours is the model’s probability. Implied is the probability the posted price carries. Edge is the gap between them, in points.
| Market | Pick | Ours | Implied | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | ATL to win | 36.3% | 31.9% | +4.4 | B |
| Total | Over 42.5 | 52.5% | 51.7% | +0.8 | C |
| Spread | ATL +4.5 | 49.3% | 48.9% | +0.4 | C |
| Spread | GB -4.5 | 50.7% | 51.1% | -0.4 | C |
| Total | Under 42.5 | 47.5% | 48.3% | -0.8 | C |
| Moneyline | GB to win | 63.7% | 68.1% | -4.4 | C |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
What the model projected
These are the model’s own outputs at the time the drop was built, not a forecast published after the fact.
Injury report the model saw
ATL
- Cooper Rush — Out
- Jack Strand — Out
- Robert Longerbeam — Out
- Ethan Onianwa — Out
- Malcolm DeWalt IV — Out
GB
- Jayden Reed — Out
- Zach Bako-Bewele — Out
- Anthony Campbell — Out
- Aaron Banks — Out
- Warren Brinson — Out
Copied from the drop file as it stood when the drop was built. It is not updated afterwards.
How to read this page
Tier A is an edge of six points or more and tier B three to six; both are recommended. Tier C is below three points — it is shown for completeness and is never recommended. A prop market whose calibration gate is failing is marked watch: the model prices it, the record grades it, and nothing here recommends it.
Every leg on this page is graded in public on the record and on the Sep 24, 2026 results page. One leg a day is posted in full, free, on today’s free leg.