Wednesday September 16, 2026
144 legs graded across 14 MLB games. Recommended legs went 11–11.
The day, in full
Closing-line value is the no-vig probability of the side we took at the close minus the same probability when the drop was built. Positive means the market moved onto our side. Two things keep it honest here. A leg whose drop was built after the game started has no closing line to beat, so its CLV is a dash rather than a zero. And the average is taken over recommended legs only: both sides of every market are priced and graded, and averaging a side against its own mirror image cancels to zero whatever the model did.
Recommended legs
Tier A and tier B only — the legs the model actually stood behind that day.
| Pick | Market | Ours | Edge | Tier | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH +1.5Phillies at Nationals | Spread | 66.1% | +16.8 | A | Loss | -1.30 |
| COL +1.5Padres at Rockies | Spread | 62.9% | +13.3 | A | Loss | +0.32 |
| LAA +1.5Mariners at Angels | Spread | 68.7% | +10.6 | A | Loss | +0.16 |
| PIT +1.5Brewers at Pirates | Spread | 65.7% | +9.3 | A | Win | +2.04 |
| WSH to winPhillies at Nationals | Moneyline | 45.2% | +8.5 | A | Loss | +0.26 |
| DET +1.5Tigers at Blue Jays | Spread | 72.1% | +8.5 | A | Loss | -0.21 |
| MIN +1.5Yankees at Twins | Spread | 63.7% | +8.4 | A | Win | -2.69 |
| ATH +1.5Athletics at Rays | Spread | 64.1% | +8.0 | A | Win | -0.56 |
| Over 8Braves at Cubs | Total | 55.9% | +7.8 | A | Win | +0.87 |
| TEX +1.5Red Sox at Rangers | Spread | 70.4% | +7.5 | A | Win | -1.36 |
| DET to winTigers at Blue Jays | Moneyline | 53.1% | +6.5 | A | Loss | -0.82 |
| KC +1.5Royals at Astros | Spread | 66.3% | +5.6 | B | Win | -2.66 |
| Under 11.5Padres at Rockies | Total | 57.1% | +5.5 | B | Loss | +0.00 |
| SF +1.5Giants at Cardinals | Spread | 64.7% | +5.5 | B | Win | -1.85 |
| CIN +1.5Dodgers at Reds | Spread | 52.1% | +5.3 | B | Win | -1.90 |
| CHC to winBraves at Cubs | Moneyline | 61.4% | +5.1 | B | Win | +3.87 |
| COL to winPadres at Rockies | Moneyline | 44.3% | +5.0 | B | Loss | +0.81 |
| LAD to winDodgers at Reds | Moneyline | 70.5% | +4.9 | B | Loss | +1.22 |
| CHW +1.5White Sox at Guardians | Spread | 62.0% | +4.8 | B | Loss | +3.32 |
| ATH to winAthletics at Rays | Moneyline | 41.8% | +4.7 | B | Loss | +0.13 |
| Under 8.5Orioles at Mets | Total | 52.0% | +4.5 | B | Win | +0.31 |
| Over 7.5Brewers at Pirates | Total | 54.6% | +4.4 | B | Win | -1.96 |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
Games
Each game’s recommended (tier A/B) record that day.
How to read this page
Tier A is an edge of six points or more and tier B three to six; both are recommended. Tier C is below three points — it is shown for completeness and is never recommended. A prop market whose calibration gate is failing is marked watch: the model prices it, the record grades it, and nothing here recommends it.