Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB · Wed Sep 16, 6:40 pm ET · 12 legs priced, 2 recommended.
Kickoff was Wed Sep 16, 6:40 pm ET. Results post once the game is graded.
Our model against the market
Ours is the model’s probability. Implied is the probability the posted price carries. Edge is the gap between them, in points.
| Market | Pick | Ours | Implied | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | PIT +1.5 | 65.7% | 56.4% | +9.3 | A |
| Total | Over 7.5 | 54.6% | 50.2% | +4.4 | B |
| Moneyline | MIL to win | 56.2% | 55.3% | +0.9 | C |
| Moneyline | PIT to win | 43.8% | 44.7% | -0.9 | C |
| Total | Under 7.5 | 45.4% | 49.8% | -4.4 | C |
| Spread | MIL -1.5 | 34.3% | 43.6% | -9.3 | C |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
First 5 innings
The First 5 model has not cleared its own calibration gate, so every leg here is shown and none is recommended.
| Market | Pick | Ours | Implied | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 5 total | Over 3.5 | 53.4% | 50.0% | +3.4 | C |
| First 5 moneyline | MIL to win | 55.8% | 54.1% | +1.7 | C |
| First 5 run line | PIT +0.5 | 55.9% | 55.4% | +0.5 | C |
| First 5 run line | MIL -0.5 | 44.1% | 44.6% | -0.5 | C |
| First 5 moneyline | PIT to win | 44.2% | 45.9% | -1.7 | C |
| First 5 total | Under 3.5 | 46.6% | 50.0% | -3.4 | C |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
Injury report the model saw
MIL
- Rob Zastryzny — 60-Day-IL
- Bryse Wilson — 15-Day-IL
- Grant Anderson — 15-Day-IL
- Brandon Woodruff — 60-Day-IL
- Quinn Priester — 60-Day-IL
PIT
- Kirby Yates — 15-Day-IL
- Braxton Ashcraft — 15-Day-IL
- Isaac Mattson — 15-Day-IL
- Esmerlyn Valdez — 10-Day-IL
- Mitch Keller — 60-Day-IL
Copied from the drop file as it stood when the drop was built. It is not updated afterwards.
How to read this page
Tier A is an edge of six points or more and tier B three to six; both are recommended. Tier C is below three points — it is shown for completeness and is never recommended. A prop market whose calibration gate is failing is marked watch: the model prices it, the record grades it, and nothing here recommends it.
Other MLB games that day
Every leg on this page is graded in public on the record and on the Sep 16, 2026 results page. One leg a day is posted in full, free, on today’s free leg.