Friday September 18, 2026
144 legs graded across 14 MLB games. Recommended legs went 11–6.
The day, in full
Closing-line value is the no-vig probability of the side we took at the close minus the same probability when the drop was built. Positive means the market moved onto our side. Two things keep it honest here. A leg whose drop was built after the game started has no closing line to beat, so its CLV is a dash rather than a zero. And the average is taken over recommended legs only: both sides of every market are priced and graded, and averaging a side against its own mirror image cancels to zero whatever the model did.
Recommended legs
Tier A and tier B only — the legs the model actually stood behind that day.
| Pick | Market | Ours | Edge | Tier | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL +1.5Mariners at Rockies | Spread | 62.8% | +15.4 | A | Win | +0.44 |
| Under 10.5Mariners at Rockies | Total | 62.6% | +13.6 | A | Win | -0.54 |
| HOU +1.5Braves at Astros | Spread | 70.6% | +10.9 | A | Loss | +0.31 |
| CIN +1.5Cubs at Reds | Spread | 64.2% | +8.1 | A | Win | -1.21 |
| NYM +1.5Phillies at Mets | Spread | 69.8% | +7.3 | A | Win | -25.98 |
| TEX +1.5Blue Jays at Rangers | Spread | 64.6% | +7.3 | A | Win | +0.07 |
| STL +1.5Nationals at Cardinals | Spread | 68.5% | +6.9 | A | Loss | -0.77 |
| BOS +1.5Red Sox at Rays | Spread | 69.7% | +6.7 | A | Win | +0.68 |
| DET +1.5Tigers at White Sox | Spread | 68.8% | +6.5 | A | Win | +0.72 |
| CLE to winAthletics at Guardians | Moneyline | 72.8% | +6.0 | B | Win | +1.23 |
| LAA +1.5Twins at Angels | Spread | 66.6% | +5.8 | B | Loss | +0.62 |
| COL to winMariners at Rockies | Moneyline | 42.5% | +5.5 | B | Loss | +0.18 |
| BAL +1.5Brewers at Orioles | Spread | 59.5% | +5.2 | B | Win | +0.59 |
| Under 8.5Cubs at Reds | Total | 53.1% | +4.4 | B | Loss | +1.08 |
| MIN to winTwins at Angels | Moneyline | 54.8% | +4.3 | B | Win | +0.44 |
| SF +1.5Giants at Dodgers | Spread | 48.9% | +4.2 | B | Loss | +0.00 |
| MIL to winBrewers at Orioles | Moneyline | 62.2% | +4.0 | B | Win | -0.92 |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
Games
Each game’s recommended (tier A/B) record that day.
How to read this page
Tier A is an edge of six points or more and tier B three to six; both are recommended. Tier C is below three points — it is shown for completeness and is never recommended. A prop market whose calibration gate is failing is marked watch: the model prices it, the record grades it, and nothing here recommends it.