Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB · Fri Sep 18, 6:40 pm ET · 12 legs priced, 0 recommended.
The drop closed at kickoff, Fri Sep 18, 6:40 pm ET. Every leg below is settled.
Our model against the market
Ours is the model’s probability. Implied is the probability the posted price carries. Edge is the gap between them, in points.
| Market | Pick | Ours | Implied | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 8.5 | 53.9% | 50.5% | +3.4 | C |
| Moneyline | PIT to win | 65.3% | 63.0% | +2.4 | C |
| Spread | KC +1.5 | 57.3% | 55.1% | +2.2 | C |
| Spread | PIT -1.5 | 42.7% | 44.9% | -2.2 | C |
| Moneyline | KC to win | 34.6% | 37.0% | -2.4 | C |
| Total | Over 8.5 | 46.1% | 49.5% | -3.4 | C |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
First 5 innings
The First 5 model has not cleared its own calibration gate, so every leg here is shown and none is recommended.
| Market | Pick | Ours | Implied | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 5 total | Under 4.5 | 55.5% | 51.0% | +4.5 | C |
| First 5 moneyline | PIT to win | 64.7% | 61.6% | +3.1 | C |
| First 5 run line | KC +0.5 | 47.5% | 46.9% | +0.5 | C |
| First 5 run line | PIT -0.5 | 52.5% | 53.1% | -0.5 | C |
| First 5 moneyline | KC to win | 35.3% | 38.4% | -3.1 | C |
| First 5 total | Over 4.5 | 44.5% | 49.0% | -4.5 | C |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
How it graded
| Pick | Market | Tier | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | First 5 total | C | Loss | — |
| Under 8.5 | Total | C | Loss | +0.75 |
| PIT to win | First 5 moneyline | C | Push | — |
| PIT to win | Moneyline | C | Win | +0.00 |
| KC +1.5 | Spread | C | Loss | -0.20 |
| KC +0.5 | First 5 run line | C | Win | — |
| PIT -0.5 | First 5 run line | C | Loss | — |
| PIT -1.5 | Spread | C | Win | +0.20 |
| KC to win | Moneyline | C | Loss | +0.00 |
| KC to win | First 5 moneyline | C | Push | — |
| Over 8.5 | Total | C | Win | -0.75 |
| Over 4.5 | First 5 total | C | Win | — |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
Closing-line value is the no-vig probability of the side we took at the close minus the same probability when the drop was built. Positive means the market moved onto our side. Two things keep it honest here. A leg whose drop was built after the game started has no closing line to beat, so its CLV is a dash rather than a zero. And the average is taken over recommended legs only: both sides of every market are priced and graded, and averaging a side against its own mirror image cancels to zero whatever the model did.
Injury report the model saw
KC
- Jac Caglianone — Day-To-Day
- Connor Seabold — 60-Day-IL
- Tony Gonsolin — 15-Day-IL
- James McArthur — 60-Day-IL
- Beck Way — 15-Day-IL
PIT
- Kirby Yates — 15-Day-IL
- Isaac Mattson — 15-Day-IL
- Esmerlyn Valdez — 10-Day-IL
- Braxton Ashcraft — 15-Day-IL
- Mitch Keller — 60-Day-IL
Copied from the drop file as it stood when the drop was built. It is not updated afterwards.
How to read this page
Tier A is an edge of six points or more and tier B three to six; both are recommended. Tier C is below three points — it is shown for completeness and is never recommended. A prop market whose calibration gate is failing is marked watch: the model prices it, the record grades it, and nothing here recommends it.
Other MLB games that day
Every leg on this page is graded in public on the record and on the Sep 18, 2026 results page. One leg a day is posted in full, free, on today’s free leg.