Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
MLB · Thu Sep 17, 7:15 pm ET · 12 legs priced, 0 recommended.
The drop closes at kickoff, 7:15 pm ET.
Paid drops are switched off until the closing-line-value gate passes. Until then the free leg and the full graded record are the whole product.
Our model against the market
Ours is the model’s probability. Implied is the probability the posted price carries. Edge is the gap between them, in points.
| Market | Pick | Ours | Implied | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | NYM to win | 58.7% | 55.3% | +3.4 | C |
| Spread | PHI +1.5 | 63.4% | 61.7% | +1.6 | C |
| Spread | NYM -1.5 | 36.6% | 38.3% | -1.6 | C |
| Moneyline | PHI to win | 41.3% | 44.7% | -3.4 | C |
| Total | Over 8 | 44.3% | 50.8% | -6.4 | C |
| Total | Under 8 | 41.8% | 49.2% | -7.5 | C |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
First 5 innings
The First 5 model has not cleared its own calibration gate, so every leg here is shown and none is recommended.
| Market | Pick | Ours | Implied | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 5 moneyline | NYM to win | 60.2% | 55.4% | +4.8 | C |
| First 5 run line | NYM -0.5 | 49.0% | 46.9% | +2.1 | C |
| First 5 total | Over 4.5 | 50.8% | 50.0% | +0.8 | C |
| First 5 total | Under 4.5 | 49.2% | 50.0% | -0.8 | C |
| First 5 run line | PHI +0.5 | 51.0% | 53.1% | -2.1 | C |
| First 5 moneyline | PHI to win | 39.8% | 44.6% | -4.8 | C |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
Injury report the model saw
PHI
- Jesus Luzardo — 15-Day-IL
- Caleb Kilian — 60-Day-IL
- Felix Reyes — 60-Day-IL
- Johan Rojas — 60-Day-IL
- Adolis Garcia — 60-Day-IL
NYM
- Cionel Perez — 15-Day-IL
- Devin Williams — 15-Day-IL
- Daniel Duarte — 15-Day-IL
- Robert Stock — 15-Day-IL
- Jorge Polanco — 60-Day-IL
Copied from the drop file as it stood when the drop was built. It is not updated afterwards.
How to read this page
Tier A is an edge of six points or more and tier B three to six; both are recommended. Tier C is below three points — it is shown for completeness and is never recommended. A prop market whose calibration gate is failing is marked watch: the model prices it, the record grades it, and nothing here recommends it.
Other MLB games that day
Every leg on this page is graded in public on the record and on the Sep 17, 2026 results page. One leg a day is posted in full, free, on today’s free leg.