Thursday September 17, 2026
166 legs graded across 9 MLB and NFL games. Recommended legs went 10–9–1.
The day, in full
Closing-line value is the no-vig probability of the side we took at the close minus the same probability when the drop was built. Positive means the market moved onto our side. Two things keep it honest here. A leg whose drop was built after the game started has no closing line to beat, so its CLV is a dash rather than a zero. And the average is taken over recommended legs only: both sides of every market are priced and graded, and averaging a side against its own mirror image cancels to zero whatever the model did.
Recommended legs
Tier A and tier B only — the legs the model actually stood behind that day.
| Pick | Market | Ours | Edge | Tier | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL +1.5Padres at Rockies | Spread | 64.8% | +14.4 | A | Loss | -4.47 |
| PIT +1.5Brewers at Pirates | Spread | 69.1% | +14.0 | A | Win | +0.19 |
| TEX +1.5Red Sox at Rangers | Spread | 69.7% | +12.6 | A | Win | +1.26 |
| Under 4.5Lions at Bills | receptions | 62.8% | +11.8 | A | Win | — |
| Under 54.5Lions at Bills | Total | 59.5% | +11.2 | A | Loss | +0.00 |
| Over 14.5Lions at Bills | receiving yards | 58.1% | +9.2 | A | Win | — |
| Over 12.5Lions at Bills | receiving yards | 59.1% | +9.1 | A | Loss | — |
| LAA +1.5Twins at Angels | Spread | 72.0% | +8.9 | A | Win | -0.76 |
| Over 14.5Lions at Bills | receiving yards | 57.4% | +8.4 | A | Push | — |
| Over 1.5Lions at Bills | receptions | 49.0% | +8.1 | A | Win | — |
| CIN +1.5Dodgers at Reds | Spread | 58.3% | +7.3 | A | Loss | -0.86 |
| Under 53.5Lions at Bills | receiving yards | 46.1% | +7.0 | A | Win | — |
| Under 2.5Lions at Bills | receptions | 60.8% | +6.7 | A | Win | — |
| Over 1.5Lions at Bills | receptions | 48.6% | +6.1 | A | Win | — |
| DET +1.5Tigers at White Sox | Spread | 69.3% | +6.1 | A | Loss | -26.99 |
| PIT to winBrewers at Pirates | Moneyline | 49.4% | +5.8 | B | Win | +0.11 |
| COL to winPadres at Rockies | Moneyline | 45.8% | +5.7 | B | Loss | -3.64 |
| Over 8.5Tigers at White Sox | Total | 53.4% | +4.5 | B | Loss | +0.21 |
| TEX to winRed Sox at Rangers | Moneyline | 48.4% | +4.5 | B | Loss | +2.08 |
| DET to winLions at Bills | Moneyline | 36.6% | +4.1 | B | Loss | -0.56 |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
Games
Each game’s recommended (tier A/B) record that day.
How to read this page
Tier A is an edge of six points or more and tier B three to six; both are recommended. Tier C is below three points — it is shown for completeness and is never recommended. A prop market whose calibration gate is failing is marked watch: the model prices it, the record grades it, and nothing here recommends it.