Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills
NFL · Thu Sep 17, 8:15 pm ET · 76 legs priced, 10 recommended.
Graded
The drop closed at kickoff, Thu Sep 17, 8:15 pm ET. Every leg below is settled.
Our model against the market
Ours is the model’s probability. Implied is the probability the posted price carries. Edge is the gap between them, in points.
| Market | Pick | Ours | Implied | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 54.5 | 59.5% | 48.3% | +11.2 | A |
| Moneyline | DET to win | 36.6% | 32.5% | +4.1 | B |
| Spread | DET +5.5 | 52.6% | 51.1% | +1.5 | C |
| Spread | BUF -5.5 | 47.4% | 48.9% | -1.5 | C |
| Moneyline | BUF to win | 63.4% | 67.5% | -4.1 | C |
| Total | Over 54.5 | 40.6% | 51.7% | -11.2 | C |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
Player props
One row per priced player line. A market marked watch is priced and graded but never recommended.
| Player | Stat | Line | Side | Ours | Implied | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | receptions | 4.5 | Under | 62.8% | 51.0% | +11.8 | A |
| Keon Coleman | receiving yards | 14.5 | Over | 58.1% | 49.0% | +9.2 | A |
| Dawson Knox | receiving yards | 12.5 | Over | 59.1% | 50.0% | +9.1 | A |
| Josh Palmer | receiving yards | 14.5 | Over | 57.4% | 49.0% | +8.4 | A |
| James Cook | rushing yards | 100.5 | Over | 39.1% | 30.8% | +8.3 | watch |
| Keon Coleman | receptions | 1.5 | Over | 49.0% | 40.8% | +8.1 | A |
| Dalton Kincaid | receptions | 3.5 | Under | 48.6% | 40.8% | +7.7 | C |
| DJ Moore | receiving yards | 53.5 | Under | 46.1% | 39.1% | +7.0 | A |
| Josh Allen | completions | 21.5 | Under | 60.1% | 53.1% | +7.0 | watch |
| James Cook | receptions | 2.5 | Under | 60.8% | 54.1% | +6.7 | A |
| Josh Allen | rushing yards | 38.5 | Over | 48.2% | 41.6% | +6.6 | watch |
| Dawson Knox | receptions | 1.5 | Over | 48.6% | 42.5% | +6.1 | A |
| Jared Goff | rushing yards | 0.5 | Over | 45.8% | 39.8% | +6.0 | watch |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | rushing yards | 69.5 | Under | 33.4% | 28.5% | +5.0 | watch |
| Josh Allen | passing touchdowns | 1.5 | Under | 44.3% | 40.8% | +3.5 | watch |
| Sam LaPorta | receiving yards | 56.5 | Over | 42.3% | 39.1% | +3.2 | C |
| Isaac TeSlaa | receiving yards | 17.5 | Over | 52.2% | 49.0% | +3.2 | C |
| Josh Palmer | receptions | 1.5 | Over | 40.6% | 37.5% | +3.1 | C |
| Sam LaPorta | receptions | 4.5 | Over | 48.9% | 45.9% | +3.0 | C |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | receiving yards | 31.5 | Over | 51.9% | 49.0% | +2.9 | C |
| Khalil Shakir | receptions | 4.5 | Under | 58.6% | 56.3% | +2.3 | C |
| Dalton Kincaid | receiving yards | 52.5 | Over | 51.7% | 50.0% | +1.7 | C |
| Jameson Williams | receiving yards | 57.5 | Over | 52.4% | 51.0% | +1.4 | C |
| Jameson Williams | receptions | 3.5 | Over | 57.7% | 56.3% | +1.4 | C |
| Khalil Shakir | receiving yards | 44.5 | Over | 51.2% | 50.0% | +1.2 | C |
| Isaac TeSlaa | receptions | 1.5 | Under | 52.2% | 51.0% | +1.1 | C |
| James Cook | receiving yards | 17.5 | Under | 51.1% | 50.0% | +1.1 | C |
| Jared Goff | passing touchdowns | 1.5 | Over | 55.0% | 54.1% | +0.9 | watch |
| Jared Goff | completions | 23.5 | Over | 51.6% | 51.0% | +0.6 | watch |
| Jared Goff | passing yards | 256.5 | Over | 50.6% | 50.0% | +0.6 | C |
| Sione Vaki | rushing yards | 7.5 | Under | 49.5% | 49.0% | +0.6 | watch |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | receptions | 4.5 | Over | 46.4% | 45.9% | +0.5 | C |
| Josh Allen | passing yards | 263.5 | Under | 52.4% | 52.0% | +0.4 | C |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | receptions | 7.5 | Under | 52.3% | 52.0% | +0.3 | C |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | receiving yards | 80.5 | Under | 50.2% | 50.0% | +0.2 | C |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | receiving yards | 80.5 | Over | 49.8% | 50.0% | -0.2 | C |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | receptions | 7.5 | Over | 47.7% | 48.0% | -0.3 | C |
| Josh Allen | passing yards | 263.5 | Over | 47.6% | 48.0% | -0.4 | C |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | receptions | 4.5 | Under | 53.6% | 54.1% | -0.5 | C |
| Sione Vaki | rushing yards | 7.5 | Over | 50.4% | 51.0% | -0.6 | watch |
| Jared Goff | passing yards | 256.5 | Under | 49.4% | 50.0% | -0.6 | C |
| Jared Goff | completions | 23.5 | Under | 48.4% | 49.0% | -0.6 | watch |
| Jared Goff | passing touchdowns | 1.5 | Under | 45.0% | 45.9% | -0.9 | watch |
| James Cook | receiving yards | 17.5 | Over | 48.9% | 50.0% | -1.1 | C |
| Isaac TeSlaa | receptions | 1.5 | Over | 47.8% | 49.0% | -1.1 | C |
| Khalil Shakir | receiving yards | 44.5 | Under | 48.8% | 50.0% | -1.2 | C |
| Jameson Williams | receptions | 3.5 | Under | 42.3% | 43.7% | -1.4 | C |
| Jameson Williams | receiving yards | 57.5 | Under | 47.6% | 49.0% | -1.4 | C |
| Dalton Kincaid | receiving yards | 52.5 | Under | 48.3% | 50.0% | -1.7 | C |
| Khalil Shakir | receptions | 4.5 | Over | 41.4% | 43.7% | -2.3 | C |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | receiving yards | 31.5 | Under | 48.1% | 51.0% | -2.9 | C |
| Sam LaPorta | receptions | 4.5 | Under | 51.1% | 54.1% | -3.0 | C |
| Josh Palmer | receptions | 1.5 | Under | 59.4% | 62.5% | -3.1 | C |
| Isaac TeSlaa | receiving yards | 17.5 | Under | 47.8% | 51.0% | -3.2 | C |
| Sam LaPorta | receiving yards | 56.5 | Under | 57.7% | 60.9% | -3.2 | C |
| Josh Allen | passing touchdowns | 1.5 | Over | 55.7% | 59.2% | -3.5 | watch |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | rushing yards | 69.5 | Over | 66.6% | 71.5% | -5.0 | watch |
| Jared Goff | rushing yards | 0.5 | Under | 54.2% | 60.2% | -6.0 | watch |
| Dawson Knox | receptions | 1.5 | Under | 51.4% | 57.5% | -6.1 | C |
| Josh Allen | rushing yards | 38.5 | Under | 51.8% | 58.4% | -6.6 | watch |
| James Cook | receptions | 2.5 | Over | 39.2% | 45.9% | -6.7 | C |
| Josh Allen | completions | 21.5 | Over | 39.9% | 46.9% | -7.0 | watch |
| DJ Moore | receiving yards | 53.5 | Over | 53.9% | 60.9% | -7.0 | C |
| Dalton Kincaid | receptions | 3.5 | Over | 51.4% | 59.2% | -7.7 | C |
| Keon Coleman | receptions | 1.5 | Under | 51.0% | 59.2% | -8.1 | C |
| James Cook | rushing yards | 100.5 | Under | 60.9% | 69.2% | -8.3 | watch |
| Josh Palmer | receiving yards | 14.5 | Under | 42.6% | 51.0% | -8.4 | C |
| Dawson Knox | receiving yards | 12.5 | Under | 40.9% | 50.0% | -9.1 | C |
| Keon Coleman | receiving yards | 14.5 | Under | 41.9% | 51.0% | -9.2 | C |
| DJ Moore | receptions | 4.5 | Over | 37.2% | 49.0% | -11.8 | C |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
How it graded
Recommended legs (tier A/B)6–3–1
Every leg priced36–36–4
Mean CLV, recommended legs-0.28 (2 legs)
| Pick | Market | Tier | Result | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5DJ Moore | receptions | A | Win | — |
| Under 54.5 | Total | A | Loss | +0.00 |
| Over 14.5Keon Coleman | receiving yards | A | Win | — |
| Over 12.5Dawson Knox | receiving yards | A | Loss | — |
| Over 14.5Josh Palmer | receiving yards | A | Push | — |
| Over 1.5Keon Coleman | receptions | A | Win | — |
| Under 53.5DJ Moore | receiving yards | A | Win | — |
| Under 2.5James Cook | receptions | A | Win | — |
| Over 1.5Dawson Knox | receptions | A | Win | — |
| DET to win | Moneyline | B | Loss | -0.56 |
| Over 100.5James Cook | rushing yards | watch | Win | — |
| Under 3.5Dalton Kincaid | receptions | C | Loss | — |
| Under 21.5Josh Allen | completions | watch | Win | — |
| Over 38.5Josh Allen | rushing yards | watch | Win | — |
| Over 0.5Jared Goff | rushing yards | watch | Win | — |
| Under 69.5Jahmyr Gibbs | rushing yards | watch | Win | — |
| Under 1.5Josh Allen | passing touchdowns | watch | Loss | — |
| Over 56.5Sam LaPorta | receiving yards | C | Loss | — |
| Over 17.5Isaac TeSlaa | receiving yards | C | Win | — |
| Over 1.5Josh Palmer | receptions | C | Push | — |
| Over 4.5Sam LaPorta | receptions | C | Win | — |
| Over 31.5Jahmyr Gibbs | receiving yards | C | Win | — |
| Under 4.5Khalil Shakir | receptions | C | Win | — |
| Over 52.5Dalton Kincaid | receiving yards | C | Win | — |
| DET +5.5 | Spread | C | Loss | +0.00 |
| Over 57.5Jameson Williams | receiving yards | C | Loss | — |
| Over 3.5Jameson Williams | receptions | C | Loss | — |
| Over 44.5Khalil Shakir | receiving yards | C | Loss | — |
| Under 1.5Isaac TeSlaa | receptions | C | Loss | — |
| Under 17.5James Cook | receiving yards | C | Win | — |
| Over 1.5Jared Goff | passing touchdowns | watch | Win | — |
| Over 23.5Jared Goff | completions | watch | Win | — |
| Over 256.5Jared Goff | passing yards | C | Win | — |
| Under 7.5Sione Vaki | rushing yards | watch | Win | — |
| Over 4.5Jahmyr Gibbs | receptions | C | Win | — |
| Under 263.5Josh Allen | passing yards | C | Win | — |
| Under 7.5Amon-Ra St. Brown | receptions | C | Loss | — |
| Under 80.5Amon-Ra St. Brown | receiving yards | C | Loss | — |
| Over 80.5Amon-Ra St. Brown | receiving yards | C | Win | — |
| Over 7.5Amon-Ra St. Brown | receptions | C | Win | — |
| Over 263.5Josh Allen | passing yards | C | Loss | — |
| Under 4.5Jahmyr Gibbs | receptions | C | Loss | — |
| Over 7.5Sione Vaki | rushing yards | watch | Loss | — |
| Under 256.5Jared Goff | passing yards | C | Loss | — |
| Under 23.5Jared Goff | completions | watch | Loss | — |
| Under 1.5Jared Goff | passing touchdowns | watch | Loss | — |
| Over 17.5James Cook | receiving yards | C | Loss | — |
| Over 1.5Isaac TeSlaa | receptions | C | Win | — |
| Under 44.5Khalil Shakir | receiving yards | C | Win | — |
| Under 3.5Jameson Williams | receptions | C | Win | — |
| Under 57.5Jameson Williams | receiving yards | C | Win | — |
| BUF -5.5 | Spread | C | Win | +0.00 |
| Under 52.5Dalton Kincaid | receiving yards | C | Loss | — |
| Over 4.5Khalil Shakir | receptions | C | Loss | — |
| Under 31.5Jahmyr Gibbs | receiving yards | C | Loss | — |
| Under 4.5Sam LaPorta | receptions | C | Loss | — |
| Under 1.5Josh Palmer | receptions | C | Push | — |
| Under 17.5Isaac TeSlaa | receiving yards | C | Loss | — |
| Under 56.5Sam LaPorta | receiving yards | C | Win | — |
| Over 1.5Josh Allen | passing touchdowns | watch | Win | — |
| BUF to win | Moneyline | C | Win | +0.56 |
| Over 69.5Jahmyr Gibbs | rushing yards | watch | Loss | — |
| Under 0.5Jared Goff | rushing yards | watch | Loss | — |
| Under 1.5Dawson Knox | receptions | C | Loss | — |
| Under 38.5Josh Allen | rushing yards | watch | Loss | — |
| Over 2.5James Cook | receptions | C | Loss | — |
| Over 21.5Josh Allen | completions | watch | Loss | — |
| Over 53.5DJ Moore | receiving yards | C | Loss | — |
| Over 3.5Dalton Kincaid | receptions | C | Win | — |
| Under 1.5Keon Coleman | receptions | C | Loss | — |
| Under 100.5James Cook | rushing yards | watch | Loss | — |
| Under 14.5Josh Palmer | receiving yards | C | Push | — |
| Under 12.5Dawson Knox | receiving yards | C | Win | — |
| Under 14.5Keon Coleman | receiving yards | C | Loss | — |
| Over 54.5 | Total | C | Win | +0.00 |
| Over 4.5DJ Moore | receptions | C | Loss | — |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
Closing-line value is the no-vig probability of the side we took at the close minus the same probability when the drop was built. Positive means the market moved onto our side. Two things keep it honest here. A leg whose drop was built after the game started has no closing line to beat, so its CLV is a dash rather than a zero. And the average is taken over recommended legs only: both sides of every market are priced and graded, and averaging a side against its own mirror image cancels to zero whatever the model did.
What the model projected
Projected marginBUF +4.62
Projected total51.17
Bills win probability63.4%
These are the model’s own outputs at the time the drop was built, not a forecast published after the fact.
Injury report the model saw
DET
- Mekhi Wingo — Out
- Ennis Rakestraw Jr. — Out
- Jimmy Rolder — Out
- Ahmed Hassanein — Out
- Keith Abney II — Out
BUF
- Ed Oliver — Out
- Ar'maj Reed-Adams — Out
- Jalon Kilgore — Out
- Skyler Bell — Out
- Jude Bowry — Out
Copied from the drop file as it stood when the drop was built. It is not updated afterwards.
How to read this page
Tier A is an edge of six points or more and tier B three to six; both are recommended. Tier C is below three points — it is shown for completeness and is never recommended. A prop market whose calibration gate is failing is marked watch: the model prices it, the record grades it, and nothing here recommends it.
Every leg on this page is graded in public on the record and on the Sep 17, 2026 results page. One leg a day is posted in full, free, on today’s free leg.