Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills
NFL · Thu Sep 17, 8:15 pm ET · 76 legs priced, 10 recommended.
The drop opens 60 minutes before kickoff and closes when the game starts.
Paid drops are switched off until the closing-line-value gate passes. Until then the free leg and the full graded record are the whole product.
Our model against the market
Ours is the model’s probability. Implied is the probability the posted price carries. Edge is the gap between them, in points.
| Market | Pick | Ours | Implied | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 54.5 | 59.5% | 48.3% | +11.2 | A |
| Moneyline | DET to win | 36.6% | 32.5% | +4.1 | B |
| Spread | DET +5.5 | 52.6% | 51.1% | +1.5 | C |
| Spread | BUF -5.5 | 47.4% | 48.9% | -1.5 | C |
| Moneyline | BUF to win | 63.4% | 67.5% | -4.1 | C |
| Total | Over 54.5 | 40.6% | 51.7% | -11.2 | C |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
Player props
One row per priced player line. A market marked watch is priced and graded but never recommended.
| Player | Stat | Line | Side | Ours | Implied | Edge | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | receptions | 4.5 | Under | 62.8% | 51.0% | +11.8 | A |
| Keon Coleman | receiving yards | 14.5 | Over | 58.1% | 49.0% | +9.2 | A |
| Dawson Knox | receiving yards | 12.5 | Over | 59.1% | 50.0% | +9.1 | A |
| Josh Palmer | receiving yards | 14.5 | Over | 57.4% | 49.0% | +8.4 | A |
| James Cook | rushing yards | 100.5 | Over | 39.1% | 30.8% | +8.3 | watch |
| Keon Coleman | receptions | 1.5 | Over | 49.0% | 40.8% | +8.1 | A |
| Dalton Kincaid | receptions | 3.5 | Under | 48.6% | 40.8% | +7.7 | C |
| DJ Moore | receiving yards | 53.5 | Under | 46.1% | 39.1% | +7.0 | A |
| Josh Allen | completions | 21.5 | Under | 60.1% | 53.1% | +7.0 | watch |
| James Cook | receptions | 2.5 | Under | 60.8% | 54.1% | +6.7 | A |
| Josh Allen | rushing yards | 38.5 | Over | 48.2% | 41.6% | +6.6 | watch |
| Dawson Knox | receptions | 1.5 | Over | 48.6% | 42.5% | +6.1 | A |
| Jared Goff | rushing yards | 0.5 | Over | 45.8% | 39.8% | +6.0 | watch |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | rushing yards | 69.5 | Under | 33.4% | 28.5% | +5.0 | watch |
| Josh Allen | passing touchdowns | 1.5 | Under | 44.3% | 40.8% | +3.5 | watch |
| Sam LaPorta | receiving yards | 56.5 | Over | 42.3% | 39.1% | +3.2 | C |
| Isaac TeSlaa | receiving yards | 17.5 | Over | 52.2% | 49.0% | +3.2 | C |
| Josh Palmer | receptions | 1.5 | Over | 40.6% | 37.5% | +3.1 | C |
| Sam LaPorta | receptions | 4.5 | Over | 48.9% | 45.9% | +3.0 | C |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | receiving yards | 31.5 | Over | 51.9% | 49.0% | +2.9 | C |
| Khalil Shakir | receptions | 4.5 | Under | 58.6% | 56.3% | +2.3 | C |
| Dalton Kincaid | receiving yards | 52.5 | Over | 51.7% | 50.0% | +1.7 | C |
| Jameson Williams | receiving yards | 57.5 | Over | 52.4% | 51.0% | +1.4 | C |
| Jameson Williams | receptions | 3.5 | Over | 57.7% | 56.3% | +1.4 | C |
| Khalil Shakir | receiving yards | 44.5 | Over | 51.2% | 50.0% | +1.2 | C |
| Isaac TeSlaa | receptions | 1.5 | Under | 52.2% | 51.0% | +1.1 | C |
| James Cook | receiving yards | 17.5 | Under | 51.1% | 50.0% | +1.1 | C |
| Jared Goff | passing touchdowns | 1.5 | Over | 55.0% | 54.1% | +0.9 | watch |
| Jared Goff | completions | 23.5 | Over | 51.6% | 51.0% | +0.6 | watch |
| Jared Goff | passing yards | 256.5 | Over | 50.6% | 50.0% | +0.6 | C |
| Sione Vaki | rushing yards | 7.5 | Under | 49.5% | 49.0% | +0.6 | watch |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | receptions | 4.5 | Over | 46.4% | 45.9% | +0.5 | C |
| Josh Allen | passing yards | 263.5 | Under | 52.4% | 52.0% | +0.4 | C |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | receptions | 7.5 | Under | 52.3% | 52.0% | +0.3 | C |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | receiving yards | 80.5 | Under | 50.2% | 50.0% | +0.2 | C |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | receiving yards | 80.5 | Over | 49.8% | 50.0% | -0.2 | C |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | receptions | 7.5 | Over | 47.7% | 48.0% | -0.3 | C |
| Josh Allen | passing yards | 263.5 | Over | 47.6% | 48.0% | -0.4 | C |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | receptions | 4.5 | Under | 53.6% | 54.1% | -0.5 | C |
| Sione Vaki | rushing yards | 7.5 | Over | 50.4% | 51.0% | -0.6 | watch |
| Jared Goff | passing yards | 256.5 | Under | 49.4% | 50.0% | -0.6 | C |
| Jared Goff | completions | 23.5 | Under | 48.4% | 49.0% | -0.6 | watch |
| Jared Goff | passing touchdowns | 1.5 | Under | 45.0% | 45.9% | -0.9 | watch |
| James Cook | receiving yards | 17.5 | Over | 48.9% | 50.0% | -1.1 | C |
| Isaac TeSlaa | receptions | 1.5 | Over | 47.8% | 49.0% | -1.1 | C |
| Khalil Shakir | receiving yards | 44.5 | Under | 48.8% | 50.0% | -1.2 | C |
| Jameson Williams | receptions | 3.5 | Under | 42.3% | 43.7% | -1.4 | C |
| Jameson Williams | receiving yards | 57.5 | Under | 47.6% | 49.0% | -1.4 | C |
| Dalton Kincaid | receiving yards | 52.5 | Under | 48.3% | 50.0% | -1.7 | C |
| Khalil Shakir | receptions | 4.5 | Over | 41.4% | 43.7% | -2.3 | C |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | receiving yards | 31.5 | Under | 48.1% | 51.0% | -2.9 | C |
| Sam LaPorta | receptions | 4.5 | Under | 51.1% | 54.1% | -3.0 | C |
| Josh Palmer | receptions | 1.5 | Under | 59.4% | 62.5% | -3.1 | C |
| Isaac TeSlaa | receiving yards | 17.5 | Under | 47.8% | 51.0% | -3.2 | C |
| Sam LaPorta | receiving yards | 56.5 | Under | 57.7% | 60.9% | -3.2 | C |
| Josh Allen | passing touchdowns | 1.5 | Over | 55.7% | 59.2% | -3.5 | watch |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | rushing yards | 69.5 | Over | 66.6% | 71.5% | -5.0 | watch |
| Jared Goff | rushing yards | 0.5 | Under | 54.2% | 60.2% | -6.0 | watch |
| Dawson Knox | receptions | 1.5 | Under | 51.4% | 57.5% | -6.1 | C |
| Josh Allen | rushing yards | 38.5 | Under | 51.8% | 58.4% | -6.6 | watch |
| James Cook | receptions | 2.5 | Over | 39.2% | 45.9% | -6.7 | C |
| Josh Allen | completions | 21.5 | Over | 39.9% | 46.9% | -7.0 | watch |
| DJ Moore | receiving yards | 53.5 | Over | 53.9% | 60.9% | -7.0 | C |
| Dalton Kincaid | receptions | 3.5 | Over | 51.4% | 59.2% | -7.7 | C |
| Keon Coleman | receptions | 1.5 | Under | 51.0% | 59.2% | -8.1 | C |
| James Cook | rushing yards | 100.5 | Under | 60.9% | 69.2% | -8.3 | watch |
| Josh Palmer | receiving yards | 14.5 | Under | 42.6% | 51.0% | -8.4 | C |
| Dawson Knox | receiving yards | 12.5 | Under | 40.9% | 50.0% | -9.1 | C |
| Keon Coleman | receiving yards | 14.5 | Under | 41.9% | 51.0% | -9.2 | C |
| DJ Moore | receptions | 4.5 | Over | 37.2% | 49.0% | -11.8 | C |
Swipe the table sideways for the remaining columns.
What the model projected
These are the model’s own outputs at the time the drop was built, not a forecast published after the fact.
Injury report the model saw
DET
- Mekhi Wingo — Out
- Ennis Rakestraw Jr. — Out
- Jimmy Rolder — Out
- Ahmed Hassanein — Out
- Keith Abney II — Out
BUF
- Ed Oliver — Out
- Ar'maj Reed-Adams — Out
- Jalon Kilgore — Out
- Skyler Bell — Out
- Jude Bowry — Out
Copied from the drop file as it stood when the drop was built. It is not updated afterwards.
How to read this page
Tier A is an edge of six points or more and tier B three to six; both are recommended. Tier C is below three points — it is shown for completeness and is never recommended. A prop market whose calibration gate is failing is marked watch: the model prices it, the record grades it, and nothing here recommends it.
Every leg on this page is graded in public on the record and on the Sep 17, 2026 results page. One leg a day is posted in full, free, on today’s free leg.